Knowledge Vault 7 /352 - xHubAI 31/07/2025
đź”´AI Safety Index Summer 2025
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Link to InterviewOriginal xHubAI Video

Concept Graph, Resume & KeyIdeas using Moonshot Kimi K2 0905:

graph LR classDef safety fill:#d4f9d4, font-weight:bold, font-size:14px; classDef gov fill:#f9d4d4, font-weight:bold, font-size:14px; classDef china fill:#ffe0b3, font-weight:bold, font-size:14px; classDef risk fill:#f9d4f9, font-weight:bold, font-size:14px; classDef tech fill:#d4d4f9, font-weight:bold, font-size:14px; classDef trans fill:#f9f9d4, font-weight:bold, font-size:14px; Main[Vault7-352] Main --> S1[Anthropic leads
2025 Index 1] S1 -.-> G1[Safety] Main --> S2[OpenAI overtakes
DeepMind 2] S2 -.-> G1 Main --> S3[All labs fail
AGI control 3] S3 -.-> G1 Main --> S4[Zhipu DeepSeek
lowest 4] S4 -.-> G2[China] Main --> S5[No data
equals F 5] S5 -.-> G3[Gov] Main --> S6[Self-regulation
bankrupt 6] S6 -.-> G3 Main --> S7[Grades mislead
buyers 7] S7 -.-> G1 Main --> S8[US labs
dominate 8] S8 -.-> G3 Main --> S9[No ISO
benchmark 9] S9 -.-> G1 Main --> S10[Window closed
before Grok4 10] S10 -.-> G1 Main --> S11[Controllability
must cover all 11] S11 -.-> G1 Main --> S12[Open-source
escape scrutiny 12] S12 -.-> G1 Main --> S13[EU regulation
stifles 13] S13 -.-> G3 Main --> S14[AI race
like Cold-War 14] S14 -.-> G4[Risk] Main --> S15[Existential risk
overshadows scams 15] S15 -.-> G4 Main --> S16[Backdoors via
Hugging Face 16] S16 -.-> G4 Main --> S17[Cloud agents
manipulate markets 17] S17 -.-> G4 Main --> S18[GDPR clashes
with safety 18] S18 -.-> G3 Main --> S19[Courts compel
chat handover 19] S19 -.-> G3 Main --> S20[US-Israel AI
energy memo 20] S20 -.-> G3 Main --> S21[Only three
test bio-risk 21] S21 -.-> G1 Main --> S22[Red-team audits
scarce 22] S22 -.-> G1 Main --> S23[Chip trojans
unverifiable 23] S23 -.-> G5[Tech] Main --> S24[Poor grades
empower advocates 24] S24 -.-> G1 Main --> S25[China opacity
fuels narrative 25] S25 -.-> G2 Main --> S26[No weights
no reproducibility 26] S26 -.-> G1 Main --> S27[EU drops
pre-market licence 27] S27 -.-> G3 Main --> S28[Trump scraps
FLOPS thresholds 28] G3 --> S28 Main --> S29[Meta open
enables malice 29] S29 -.-> G1 Main --> S30[Anthropic shutdown
over copyright 30] S30 -.-> G1 Main --> S31[Apple eyed
Anthropic buy 31] S31 -.-> G6[Trans] Main --> S32[Mandate standards
not codes 32] S32 -.-> G3 Main --> S33[Panel tied
to Musk 33] S33 -.-> G3 Main --> S34[China rules
not public 34] S34 -.-> G2 Main --> S35[Layered security
model proxy HW 35] S35 -.-> G1 Main --> S36[AI malware
evades AV 36] S36 -.-> G4 Main --> S37[AI drones
target Gaza 37] S37 -.-> G4 Main --> S38[Index ignores
downstream apps 38] S38 -.-> G1 Main --> S39[Startups flee
EU to US 39] S39 -.-> G3 Main --> S40[Continuous not
one-time cert 40] S40 -.-> G1 Main --> S41[No shared
risk taxonomy 41] S41 -.-> G3 Main --> S42[Compute oligopoly
blocks small states 42] S42 -.-> G5 Main --> S43[Whistle-blower
protection needed 43] S43 -.-> G3 Main --> S44[Energy limits
give window 44] S44 -.-> G5 Main --> S45[AI plus
synthetic pathogens 45] S45 -.-> G4 Main --> S46[No AGI
definition agreed 46] S46 -.-> G1 Main --> S47[Security by
obscurity persists 47] S47 -.-> G1 Main --> S48[EU mulls
AI import ban 48] S48 -.-> G3 Main --> S49[Consumers lack
safety verifiers 49] S49 -.-> G1 Main --> S50[Incentives not
punitive rules 50] S50 -.-> G3 Main --> S51[Big firms
capture indices 51] S51 -.-> G3 Main --> S52[Open source
finds bugs faster 52] S52 -.-> G1 Main --> S53[Safety lags
behind economy 53] S53 -.-> G3 Main --> S54[Size not
linked safety 54] S54 -.-> G1 Main --> S55[Cloud kill
switches hidden 55] S55 -.-> G5 Main --> S56[EU wants
local datacentres 56] S56 -.-> G3 Main --> S57[Negative results
rarely published 57] S57 -.-> G1 Main --> S58[Insurance like
risk premiums 58] S58 -.-> G3 Main --> S59[AI sways
elections now 59] S59 -.-> G4 Main --> S60[Hardware trojans
survive updates 60] S60 -.-> G5 Main --> S61[Shared incident
database needed 61] S61 -.-> G1 Main --> S62[Multi-model
offset weakness 62] S62 -.-> G5 Main --> S63[Law slower
than models 63] S63 -.-> G3 Main --> S64[Charter clauses
symbolic only 64] S64 -.-> G3 Main --> S65[No AGI
timeline set 65] S65 -.-> G1 Main --> S66[Public private
fund safety 66] S66 -.-> G3 Main --> S67[Paperwork beats
engineering 67] S67 -.-> G1 Main --> S68[Movie tropes
fuel fear 68] S68 -.-> G4 Main --> S69[Red-team
mandate proposed 69] S69 -.-> G1 Main --> S70[Global South
absent 70] S70 -.-> G3 Main --> S71[Moratorium on
frontier runs 71] S71 -.-> G1 Main --> S72[Moratorium shifts
to shadows 72] S72 -.-> G1 Main --> S73[Index misses
post-deploy tuning 73] S73 -.-> G1 Main --> S74[Civil society
must co-write 74] S74 -.-> G3 Main --> S75[Nuclear lessons
partial 75] S75 -.-> G4 Main --> S76[Verifiable iterative
processes 76] S76 -.-> G1 G1[Safety] --> S1 G1 --> S2 G1 --> S3 G1 --> S7 G1 --> S9 G1 --> S11 G1 --> S12 G1 --> S21 G1 --> S22 G1 --> S24 G1 --> S26 G1 --> S29 G1 --> S35 G1 --> S38 G1 --> S40 G1 --> S46 G1 --> S47 G1 --> S52 G1 --> S54 G1 --> S57 G1 --> S61 G1 --> S65 G1 --> S67 G1 --> S69 G1 --> S71 G1 --> S72 G1 --> S73 G1 --> S76 G2[China] --> S4 G2 --> S25 G2 --> S34 G3[Gov] --> S5 G3 --> S6 G3 --> S8 G3 --> S13 G3 --> S18 G3 --> S19 G3 --> S20 G3 --> S27 G3 --> S28 G3 --> S32 G3 --> S33 G3 --> S39 G3 --> S41 G3 --> S43 G3 --> S48 G3 --> S50 G3 --> S51 G3 --> S53 G3 --> S56 G3 --> S58 G3 --> S63 G3 --> S64 G3 --> S66 G3 --> S70 G3 --> S74 G4[Risk] --> S14 G4 --> S15 G4 --> S16 G4 --> S17 G4 --> S36 G4 --> S37 G4 --> S45 G4 --> S59 G4 --> S68 G4 --> S75 G5[Tech] --> S23 G5 --> S42 G5 --> S44 G5 --> S55 G5 --> S60 G5 --> S62 G6[Trans] --> S31 class S1,S2,S3,S7,S9,S11,S12,S21,S22,S24,S26,S29,S35,S38,S40,S46,S47,S52,S54,S57,S61,S65,S67,S69,S71,S72,S73,S76 safety class S5,S6,S8,S13,S18,S19,S20,S27,S28,S32,S33,S39,S41,S43,S48,S50,S51,S53,S56,S58,S63,S64,S66,S70,S74 gov class S4,S25,S34 china class S14,S15,S16,S17,S36,S37,S45,S59,S68,S75 risk class S23,S42,S44,S55,S60,S62 tech class S31 trans

Resume:

The Future of Life Institute’s 2025 AI Safety Index, presented by Max Tegmark, grades seven frontier labs on 34 responsible-conduct indicators. An independent expert panel awards Anthropic the highest mark, a C-plus, while OpenAI edges past Google DeepMind for second place mainly because it published a whistle-blower policy and answered more voluntary disclosures. Every firm fails on existential-risk planning; most receive Fs for controllability of future AGI or super-intelligence. Chinese labs Zhipu and DeepSeek are included but score worst, partly because they submitted no English documentation. The report concludes that self-regulation is insufficient and urges governments to impose binding safety standards, arguing current market incentives push for capability over control.
Participants in the live debate welcome the transparency exercise but warn the index is narrow, static and Anglo-centric. They note grades depend on voluntary data, lack global ISO-style benchmarks, and risk becoming a marketing lever that entrenches large U.S. labs while excluding smaller or non-Western players. Speakers stress that security must cover the full stack—model weights, cloud guardrails, supply-chain hardware—and that open-source models, though harder to audit, accelerate innovation. Europe is criticised for over-regulation that stifles domestic AI startups without delivering real safety, leaving the continent dependent on American or Chinese systems and eroding strategic autonomy.
The discussion frames AI as a civilizational pivot comparable to nuclear weapons but far more diffuse: low barriers let teenagers or rogue states launch millions of autonomous agents, manipulate markets, design bio-risks or collapse critical infrastructure. Several panellists argue that existential talk distracts from today’s concrete harms—deep-fake scams, data poisoning, model backdoors—and that effective policy should combine transparency, continuous red-team audits, mandatory incident reporting and hardware provenance checks rather than blanket prohibitions. Ultimately, they agree that without enforceable, internationally harmonised safety baselines the race for super-intelligence will remain a high-stakes, uncontrolled experiment on humanity.

Key Ideas:

1.- Anthropic tops 2025 AI Safety Index with C-plus average across 34 governance indicators.

2.- OpenAI overtakes Google DeepMind for second place after releasing whistle-blower policy.

3.- Every evaluated lab receives failing F grade for planning to control future AGI or super-intelligence.

4.- Chinese firms Zhipu and DeepSeek score lowest, having provided no English documentation.

5.- Index relies on voluntary disclosures; absence of data automatically triggers lowest marks.

6.- Report concludes self-regulation is bankrupt; binding government standards are essential.

7.- Experts warn grades may mislead buyers into thinking Anthropic models are “safe enough”.

8.- U.S. labs dominate rankings because they answered more questions than European or Asian rivals.

9.- No global ISO-like benchmark exists for AI safety, hampering consistent cross-lab comparisons.

10.- Evaluation window closed before Grok-4 launch, EU code signings and Meta super-intel announcement.

11.- Panel stresses controllability must cover training, weights, deployment guardrails and hardware.

12.- Open-source models escape direct scrutiny yet power millions of developer agents worldwide.

13.- Europe’s heavy regulation stifles domestic AI startups without guaranteeing real security gains.

14.- Speakers compare AI race to Cold-War nuclear contest but note lower technical entry barriers.

15.- Existential risk narratives overshadow present harms like deep-fake scams and data poisoning.

16.- Backdoors can be smuggled via Hugging Face model updates, remaining undetected by MLOps teams.

17.- Cloud-based multi-agent loops already autonomously manipulate markets and public opinion.

18.- GDPR-style AI Act clashes with safety demands for maximum data retention and explainability.

19.- U.S. courts can compel OpenAI to hand over user chats, eroding medical or legal confidentiality.

20.- Memorandum links U.S. and Israel on AI-energy cooperation, hinting at military applications.

21.- Only three of seven firms disclose tests for bio-terror or cyber-terror risks at scale.

22.- Red-team audits are scarce inside labs; external audits face non-disclosure agreements.

23.- Hardware supply-chain opacity means European users cannot verify chip-level trojans.

24.- Index creators hope poor grades empower internal safety advocates against capability-first managers.

25.- Lack of Chinese transparency fuels Western narrative that China ignores safety entirely.

26.- Labs refuse to publish model weights or eval code, limiting reproducibility of safety scores.

27.- EU plans for pre-market licensing of large models were dropped after industry pushback.

28.- Trump administration scrapped FLOPS thresholds, opting for innovation-first, regulation-light stance.

29.- Meta’s open-source strategy receives criticism for enabling malicious fine-tuning by bad actors.

30.- Anthropic faces possible shutdown over copyright lawsuits unless U.S. government intervenes.

31.- Apple considered buying Anthropic, highlighting consolidation pressure among frontier labs.

32.- Report recommends government mandate safety standards rather than rely on voluntary codes.

33.- Expert panel independence is questioned because Future of Life Institute receives Musk funds.

34.- Chinese regulations exist but are not public, leading to automatic low transparency marks.

35.- Speakers advocate layered security: model-level, input/output filters, proxy guardrails and hardware.

36.- AI-generated malware already evades traditional antivirus, raising escalation fears.

37.- Autonomous drones in Gaza use AI to select targets without human confirmation, setting precedent.

38.- Index ignores downstream applications, focusing only on foundation model developers.

39.- European startups emigrate to U.S. to escape AI Act compliance costs and liability fears.

40.- Continuous monitoring is proposed instead of one-time certification to keep pace with updates.

41.- Lack of universal risk taxonomy hampers alignment between EU, U.S. and Chinese regulators.

42.- Labs hoard compute, creating oligopoly that small states cannot replicate or inspect.

43.- Report calls for public whistle-blower protections after OpenAI’s restrictive NDAs were exposed.

44.- Energy constraints may slow AI training, giving regulators a window to impose safety checks.

45.- Synthetic biology combined with AI lowers cost of creating novel pathogens, experts warn.

46.- Model evaluators cannot agree on definition of AGI, undermining controllability assessments.

47.- Security-through-obscurity mentality persists: labs fear transparency aids competitors and hackers.

48.- EU considers import controls on AI services that fail to meet forthcoming safety standards.

49.- Consumers currently lack accessible tools to verify safety claims of AI products they use.

50.- Speakers urge shift from punitive regulation toward market incentives for verifiable safety.

51.- AI safety indices risk capture by large firms that can afford compliance theater.

52.- Open-source advocates argue transparency enables faster bug discovery than closed models.

53.- National AI strategies treat safety as secondary to economic competitiveness and military edge.

54.- Report shows no correlation between model size and safety preparedness, challenging scaling laws.

55.- Cloud providers quietly implement kill-switches but keep procedures confidential for PR reasons.

56.- European Commission pondard requiring local AI data centres to ensure geopolitical autonomy.

57.- Labs rarely publish negative safety results, creating publication bias in research literature.

58.- Independent auditors propose insurance-like models where premiums reflect verified risk levels.

59.- AI-generated propaganda campaigns already sway elections, demonstrating immediate societal harm.

60.- Hardware-level trojans could persist across model updates, evading software-level safeguards.

61.- Report urges shared incident database to track near-misses across industry, similar to aviation.

62.- Developers admit using multiple models simultaneously to offset individual weaknesses.

63.- Regulators struggle with speed mismatch: legislative cycles last years, model releases occur monthly.

64.- Existential-risk clauses in corporate charters are mostly symbolic without enforcement mechanisms.

65.- Labs avoid committing to concrete timelines for achieving safe AGI, citing uncertainty.

66.- Public-private partnerships proposed to fund safety research without stifling innovation.

67.- Critics argue index methodology favours paperwork over demonstrable safety engineering.

68.- AI safety marketing increasingly uses movie tropes, amplifying public fear and fatalism.

69.- Report recommends mandatory red-team exercises before releasing models above compute threshold.

70.- Global South voices absent from index creation, raising equity concerns about whose risks count.

71.- Some experts call for moratorium on frontier training runs until safety standards mature.

72.- Others warn moratoriums simply relocate development to unregulated jurisdictions.

73.- Index grades ignore post-deployment fine-tuning, where much of the risk actually emerges.

74.- Speakers conclude that civil society, not just states or firms, must co-write AI governance.

75.- Historical analogies to nuclear regulation offer partial lessons but ignore AI’s diffuse nature.

76.- Ultimately, consensus demands verifiable, iterative safety processes rather than one-shot grades.

Interviews by Plácido Doménech Espí & Guests - Knowledge Vault built byDavid Vivancos 2025