Knowledge Vault 6 /65 - ICML 2021
Plumbers and Mechanics: How ML can complement RCT in policy experiments
Esther Duflo
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Concept Graph & Resume using Claude 3.5 Sonnet | Chat GPT4o | Llama 3:

graph LR classDef trials fill:#f9d4d4, font-weight:bold, font-size:14px classDef ML fill:#d4f9d4, font-weight:bold, font-size:14px classDef policy fill:#d4d4f9, font-weight:bold, font-size:14px classDef data fill:#f9f9d4, font-weight:bold, font-size:14px A[Plumbers and Mechanics:
How ML can
complement RCT in
policy experiments] --> B[Randomized
Control
Trials] A --> C[Machine
Learning] A --> D[Policy
Design] A --> E[Data
Management] A --> F[Impact
Evaluation] B --> B1[Test interventions
causal
effects. 1] B --> B2[Subgroup response
variations. 6] B --> B3[Testing various
interventions. 7] B --> B4[Efficient multi-treatment
analysis. 8] B --> B5[Pre-experiment
analysis
planning. 9] B --> B6[Adjusting experiments
based on
results. 16] C --> C1[ML for
policy
improvement. 2] C --> C2[Experimentation vs
analytical
fine-tuning. 3] C --> C3[ML with
econometrics. 4] C --> C4[Making ML models
understandable. 17] C --> C5[Statistical hypothesis
testing
issues. 19] C --> C6[Avoiding
overfitting. 23] D --> D1[Determining cause-effect
relationships. 5] D --> D2[Encouraging desired
behaviors. 10] D --> D3[Leveraging community
connections. 11] D --> D4[Text message
reminders. 12] D --> D5[Impact vs
cost
evaluation. 14] D --> D6[Individual-specific
intervention
effects. 20] E --> E1[Obtaining high-quality
data. 15] E --> E2[Using government
records. 18] E --> E3[Small datasets
issues. 28] E --> E4[Expanding small
experiments. 26] E --> E5[Interdisciplinary
teamwork. 25] E --> E6[Predictive measurable
outcomes. 22] F --> F1[Improving real-world
policies. 27] F --> F2[Assessing development
program effects. 30] F --> F3[Overestimated
effectiveness. 24] F --> F4[Structuring studies
effectively. 29] F --> F5[Increasing
vaccination rates. 21] F --> F6[Proxy
outcomes. 22] class A,B,B1,B2,B3,B4,B5,B6 trials class C,C1,C2,C3,C4,C5,C6 ML class D,D1,D2,D3,D4,D5,D6 policy class E,E1,E2,E3,E4,E5,E6 data class F,F1,F2,F3,F4,F5,F6 impact

Resume:

1.- Randomized Control Trials (RCTs): Experimental method to test causal effects of interventions by randomly assigning treatments to groups.

2.- Machine Learning in Policy: Using ML techniques to analyze and improve policy experiments, especially in development economics.

3.- Plumbers vs Mechanics: Economists as "plumbers" experimenting with policies; ML experts as "mechanics" fine-tuning analytical tools.

4.- Double Machine Learning: Technique combining ML with econometric methods to estimate treatment effects while controlling for many variables.

5.- Causal Inference: Determining cause-and-effect relationships, a key goal in policy experiments and econometrics.

6.- Treatment Effect Heterogeneity: Variations in how different subgroups respond to interventions, important for tailoring policies.

7.- Multiple Treatments: Experimenting with various interventions simultaneously to find optimal policy combinations.

8.- Smart Pooling and Pruning: Method to efficiently analyze experiments with many treatment arms by grouping similar treatments.

9.- Pre-analysis Plans: Detailed plans specifying analyses before conducting experiments to prevent data mining and increase transparency.

10.- Incentives in Development: Using financial or other incentives to encourage desired behaviors, like immunization.

11.- Social Network Interventions: Leveraging community connections to spread information and influence behavior.

12.- SMS Reminders: Using text messages to remind people of important actions, like getting vaccinated.

13.- Conditional Average Treatment Effect (CATE): Estimating how treatment effects vary based on observable characteristics.

14.- Cost-effectiveness Analysis: Evaluating interventions based on their impact relative to their cost.

15.- Data Collection Challenges: Difficulties in obtaining high-quality data in development contexts, often requiring custom solutions.

16.- Adaptive Trials: Experiments that adjust treatments based on interim results to optimize outcomes.

17.- Explainability in ML: The challenge of making complex ML models understandable to policymakers and the public.

18.- Administrative Data: Utilizing existing government records for research, often requiring extensive cleaning and processing.

19.- Multiple Inference Problem: Statistical challenges when testing many hypotheses simultaneously, requiring adjustment of significance levels.

20.- Personalized Treatment Effects: Estimating how interventions affect individuals differently based on their characteristics.

21.- Immunization Promotion: Strategies to increase childhood vaccination rates in developing countries.

22.- Proxy Outcomes: Using easily measurable outcomes to predict or represent harder-to-measure impacts of interest.

23.- Sample Splitting: Technique to avoid overfitting by using separate data for model training and evaluation.

24.- Winner's Curse: Statistical phenomenon where the best-performing treatment in a study may appear more effective than it truly is.

25.- Interdisciplinary Collaboration: Importance of economists and ML experts working together to solve complex policy problems.

26.- Scaling Interventions: Challenges in expanding successful small-scale experiments to larger populations.

27.- Policy Relevance: Ensuring research directly informs and improves real-world policies and practices.

28.- Data Limitations: Working with smaller datasets common in development economics, unlike big data in commercial ML applications.

29.- Experimental Design: Carefully structuring studies to balance multiple research objectives and practical constraints.

30.- Impact Evaluation: Assessing the effects of development programs on people's lives, aiming to improve policy decisions.

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